Comments on: The Plague of the Black Debt http://strategicinvestment.com/2009/12/02/plagu/ Strategic Investment Mon, 25 Oct 2010 04:06:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mark Adamchick http://strategicinvestment.com/2009/12/02/plagu/#comment-67 Mark Adamchick Mon, 25 Oct 2010 04:06:23 +0000 http://122.252.4.91/~strateg1/?p=1#comment-67 Ijust read your 1993 book and was impressed. Thus I checked out your web site. Your predictions of old appear correct, just that you did not calculate the longer life span of generations that has shifted the 60 year cycle. I must say I was disapointed when viewing your site to see your new pamphlet of the same title changed little in the critisism's of the president.I do see the similarities of Clinton and Obama, and feel Obama will be the one termer you described in '93, but think you should have at least re-written the analogy and title Ijust read your 1993 book and was impressed. Thus I checked out your web site. Your predictions of old appear correct, just that you did not calculate the longer life span of generations that has shifted the 60 year cycle. I must say I was disapointed when viewing your site to see your new pamphlet of the same title changed little in the critisism’s of the president.I do see the similarities of Clinton and Obama, and feel Obama will be the one termer you described in ’93, but think you should have at least re-written the analogy and title

]]> By: Frank http://strategicinvestment.com/2009/12/02/plagu/#comment-66 Frank Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:41:32 +0000 http://122.252.4.91/~strateg1/?p=1#comment-66 Dear James, It is great to see you posting more frequently. I hope this will continue. I have been following your writings since Blood in the Streets, and am a subscriber to your Strategic Newsletter and Crisis Strategy Alert. I am a huge fan, and recommend your books and research to many people - whoever will listen to me. I also follow a number of other commentators through Bloomberg and their books, blogs and videos, including Bonner, Wiggin, Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, Noriel Roubini, Harry Dent, George Soros, John Paulson, Robert Prechter, Marc Faber, Mohammed El-Erian, Nassim Taleb, Peter Schiff, Charles Morris, Ron Coby, Michael Shulman, William O'Neil, and many others. I liked your SNE Short idea, and think you were just a bit early. I think SHLD may also be an interesting short candidate - collapse of consumerism, poor management, heavy exposure to commercial real estate, tough competition from WMT and TGT. Look at the correction it had on its last earnings disappointment. A tough holiday season could send it down sharply. Remember the merger deal was touted as brilliant because of the huge real estate holdings of Sears and K-Mart. May not be so brilliant in retrospect. IBD gives it a 35 composite rating and a 40 EPS rating. BTW, if you are not already a fan, I highly recommend that you listen to Tom Keene's radio show on Bloomberg radio - Surveillance in the morning with Ken Prewitt(7-10 AM EST); and On the Economy at 6:00 PM EST. You can also check out the podcasts on www.bloomberg.com; or listen on Satellite Radio. It is must listen stuff. Check out the archives. They interview some great people and ask great, insightful questions. I enjoy your posts, and believe it would be useful to have more specific recommendations, as well as your view on the timing. For example, how best to play the coming meltdown in the Regional Banks from the Commercial Real Estate debacle that is unfolding in front of us. Do you recommend using the ETF or puts on ETF's? How about going long the VIX using ETF's with long term options? What is your view on this? I would love to hear your ideas on a rationally diversified approach to protecting yourself and profiting from the coming collapse using an asset allocation approach, with specific recommendations within each asset class, utilitzing a mix of both specific stock recommendations and ETF recommendations. For Example, the layout could look something like this: Long: Precious Metals 10% (of which 30% GLD; 30% SLV; 30%WGR.TO; 5% MFGD; 5% OKOFF) Oil and Gas(...) Agricultural Commodities Emerging Markets VIX ETF Short Short Regional Banks Short S&P 500 Short US Treasury Bonds Anyway, you get the idea. I know this approach would be more burdensome, but an allocation guideline would be tremendously useful in practice. What is your view on when the S&P correction begins? I know it is impossible to time the market, but your thoughts on this would be appreciated. I would appreciate hearing your feedback on any or all of this. Feel free to contact me by e-mail as well. Keep up the great work! Thank you for everything. All the best, Frank Dear James,

It is great to see you posting more frequently. I hope this will continue. I have been following your writings since Blood in the Streets, and am a subscriber to your Strategic Newsletter and Crisis Strategy Alert. I am a huge fan, and recommend your books and research to many people – whoever will listen to me.

I also follow a number of other commentators through Bloomberg and their books, blogs and videos, including Bonner, Wiggin, Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, Noriel Roubini, Harry Dent, George Soros, John Paulson, Robert Prechter, Marc Faber, Mohammed El-Erian, Nassim Taleb, Peter Schiff, Charles Morris, Ron Coby, Michael Shulman, William O’Neil, and many others.

I liked your SNE Short idea, and think you were just a bit early. I think SHLD may also be an interesting short candidate – collapse of consumerism, poor management, heavy exposure to commercial real estate, tough competition from WMT and TGT. Look at the correction it had on its last earnings disappointment. A tough holiday season could send it down sharply. Remember the merger deal was touted as brilliant because of the huge real estate holdings of Sears and K-Mart. May not be so brilliant in retrospect. IBD gives it a 35 composite rating and a 40 EPS rating.

BTW, if you are not already a fan, I highly recommend that you listen to Tom Keene’s radio show on Bloomberg radio – Surveillance in the morning with Ken Prewitt(7-10 AM EST); and On the Economy at 6:00 PM EST. You can also check out the podcasts on http://www.bloomberg.com; or listen on Satellite Radio. It is must listen stuff. Check out the archives. They interview some great people and ask great, insightful questions.

I enjoy your posts, and believe it would be useful to have more specific recommendations, as well as your view on the timing. For example, how best to play the coming meltdown in the Regional Banks from the Commercial Real Estate debacle that is unfolding in front of us. Do you recommend using the ETF or puts on ETF’s?

How about going long the VIX using ETF’s with long term options? What is your view on this?

I would love to hear your ideas on a rationally diversified approach to protecting yourself and profiting from the coming collapse using an asset allocation approach, with specific recommendations within each asset class, utilitzing a mix of both specific stock recommendations and ETF recommendations.

For Example, the layout could look something like this:

Long:

Precious Metals 10% (of which 30% GLD; 30% SLV; 30%WGR.TO; 5% MFGD; 5% OKOFF)
Oil and Gas(…)
Agricultural Commodities
Emerging Markets
VIX ETF

Short
Short Regional Banks
Short S&P 500
Short US Treasury Bonds

Anyway, you get the idea. I know this approach would be more burdensome, but an allocation guideline would be tremendously useful in practice. What is your view on when the S&P correction begins? I know it is impossible to time the market, but your thoughts on this would be appreciated.

I would appreciate hearing your feedback on any or all of this. Feel free to contact me by e-mail as well. Keep up the great work! Thank you for everything.

All the best,

Frank

]]> By: Mr WordPress http://strategicinvestment.com/2009/12/02/plagu/#comment-65 Mr WordPress Tue, 27 Oct 2009 04:22:27 +0000 http://122.252.4.91/~strateg1/?p=1#comment-65 Hi, this is a comment.To delete a comment, just log in and view the post's comments. There you will have the option to edit or delete them. Hi, this is a comment.To delete a comment, just log in and view the post's comments. There you will have the option to edit or delete them.

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